Growth, Demographics, Slavery, and Voting in U.S. Gubernatorial Elections, 1840-1860
By: Alex Jensen, Madeline Mader, Srinivas 鈥淐hinnu鈥 Parinandi, Anand Edward Sokhey, Michael Byrd听
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While scholars have given extensive study to the role of slavery as part of America鈥檚 political development, less attention has been given to how the institution affected subnational elections in the nineteenth century. More generally, little systematic work has been done on gubernatorial voting patterns in the antebellum period, and particularly on how the slavery positions of the parties mattered relative to other factors influencing gubernatorial vote share. In this paper we examine gubernatorial voting patterns in the antebellum period of 1840-1860, modeling vote shares for each election. We find that pro-slavery views matter second only to incumbency in predicting gubernatorial vote share. Results give quantitative heft to the degree to which slavery was a central organizing issue in nineteenth century political life, show how slavery was not only an issue that dominated federal but also state politics, and suggest that gubernatorial candidates sought labels communicating their slavery bonafides as a path to electoral success.